Monday, November 11, 2013

Annual Insurance Shopping Will Be the New Normal

There will be frequent parallels drawn to Medicare Part D on this blog because the post-ACA market for individual health insurance is very similar. Both are clearly drawn from the same general concept—federal oversight, standards of care, and (to some extent) underwriting, but executed by third-party companies who collect premiums and administer benefits. Both have autumn open-enrollment periods for a calendar-year benefit program. And smart people will shop both of them aggressively, on an annual basis.

This autumn is the third year I have served as a volunteer, helping senior citizens enroll in the best Medicare Part D program for them. As I've mentioned before, Medicare provides a very easy-to-use tool that tells people taking maintenance drugs exactly what their best annual value is. (Unfortunately, there isn't a similar tool for health insurance shoppers who have a pretty good idea how many primary care, specialist care, urgent care, ER, scans, surgeries, and labs per year they're likely to need.)

Because I've been at this for three years, I've seen people with a variety of drug requirements come through the office, and I've also helped the same people more than once. Here a couple of important trends I've observed, and how I think they'll apply to the post-ACA world.

* The best deals change from year to year.

Each year I've done Part D enrollment, there have been one or two plans notable for some extremely aggressive, competitive moves which set them apart from the rest of the field. And each year, they are different plans. Behind the scenes, the plans are making all sorts of maneuvers with pharmacies and manufacturers in an attempt to cut costs and lure customers—and at the same time, trying to figure out how many of their customers are loyal and locked-in, and will absorb higher premiums and copays for the convenience of not changing plans. As a result, people do considerably better when they change plans every year.

I expect this to be true under ACA as well. The relationship between many insurers and health care providers is tighter than it is in the pharmaceutical world (although there are certainly exceptions, such as CVS/Caremark, which is both insurer and pharmacy.) Still, I expect there to be a lot of internal wrangling to minimize costs, particularly for must-cover, zero-copay services such as basic preventative care, and I expect a lot of fluctuation as insurers decide which types of customers they want to attract in the new market.

For example, in my area one provider has clearly staked out a position catering to those willing to pay high premiums to minimize per-visit expenditures, with relatively generous copays and low(-ish) deductibles. Two are making a concerted play for the healthiest consumers, willing to take on the most financial risk by accepting very high deductibles in exchange for low premiums—by ACA standards, anyway. (More about the Dane County market's interesting segmentation in 2014 in a future post.) This situation could easily reverse itself in 2015 and beyond, depending on the financial performance of the plans.

* Some people are leaving money on the table because they're too inflexible.

Most of the people I see are willing to change insurers, and a good chunk of them are somewhat flexible when it comes to changing pharmacies. That's very helpful for them, because that flexibility can save them hundreds of dollars (or more, if their drug needs are nasty enough.) That's also not too shocking, since it's a self-selecting population: these people are making an effort to come and spend up to an hour with a volunteer who is helping them find the best plan, rather than just answering an advertisement once and then blindly renewing every year. So naturally, they're predisposed to change because they're coming in with an open mind and an aggressive attitude. (They are apparently in the minority, according to a Kaiser Foundation study showing that only about one in eight change plans. My personal experience works with smaller samples, but well over half of my “customers” benefit from switching every year.)

That said, there are still some who deliberately leave money on the table because they are not flexible enough—notably, because they insist on seeing a particular pharmacist at a clinic pharmacy (rather than a lower-cost retail chain pharmacy) and/or refuse to use mail order fulfillment. It's true enough that pharmacists can provide value-added input, advice, and understanding of one's complex health conditions. But the rising cost of healthcare in the US is not something that can just be waved away as the product of greedy (pick your villain: doctors, insurers, lawyers, some or all of the above.) Patients deliberately making choices which cost the system more, for highly commoditized products like generic cholesterol drugs, also play a role.

ACA backers have spoken with great hope and optimism about “competition.” The slate of essential health benefits established by the ACA does create a somewhat more level and predictable playing field for such competition, but consumers must play their part in the competitive market as well. Insurers will have little incentive to compete if a significant percentage of their customers demonstrate that they are unwilling to change providers—if they show that their demand for a given set of doctors is inelastic.

The reality is that this is going to require people to get very, very mercenary about their insurance carriers. Some people out there undoubtedly feel that they have sufficiently complex health conditions that their chosen specialist(s), and only their chosen specialist(s), can adequately help them. But for competition to work, the majority of us are going to have to swallow our pride and acknowledge that our healthcare needs are not so special that they cannot be adequately handled by any suitably trained professional, whatever network he or she might be in during any given calendar year. Electronic records will hopefully make it easier for a new PCP to pick up where the last one left off every time we switch carriers. But we're going to have to cope. If we all insist that only our preferred doctors and hospitals will do, “competition” will go nowhere.

It's not yet clear how many people will actually benefit from switching plans on an annual basis—we are, after all, just inching our way into Year 1 of the full-bore, ACA-governed marketplace. But Part D teaches that many beneficiaries do best when they are willing to switch plans and pharmacies on an annual basis. So, for the good of your fellow citizens and your own bottom line, get used to showing your bottom to a different doctor every year.

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